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Outlook for commercial property worsens

The outlook for UK commercial property has worsened as fund managers and analysts predict a steeper drop in capital values this year, with a recovery not due until 2011, consensus data showed on Friday.

In its quarterly survey, Investment Property Forum said property experts have cut their expectations for the UK market in the last three months, now projecting capital values to fall, on average, 17.9 percent in 2009 and 3.8 percent in 2010.

The experts predict capital values to return to growth in 2011, rising on average 4.1 percent over all commercial property sectors -- office, industrial, and retail, IPF said.

The previous estimates, compiled last November, were for a 11.5 percent fall in 2009 and a decline of 0.8 percent in 2010.

"The downward revisions in the 2009 and 2010 forecasts are unsurprising given the worsening economic outlook as GDP continues to fall and unemployment rise," said IPF, which surveyed 30 fund managers, advisors, and equity analysts.

"Limited occupier demand appears expected to meet rising supply and there is little sign of any expectation that investor demand is going to stabilize falling capital value growth in the short term," it said in the report.

Benchmark data from Investment Property Databank showed commercial property values in the UK have on average sunk by 37.4 percent since the market peaked in June 2007.

(Reporting by Daryl Loo; Editing by Andrew Macdonald)

(See for the global service for real estate professionals from Reuters)


Print   2009-03-09